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Free Tool · The First-Win Problem

Five candidate projects. One shot at a credible first win.

Your first project sets the reputation of the entire function. Pick something too big and you'll still be "in progress" when leadership loses patience; too small and nobody notices you won. Score your candidates on the five factors that actually predict first-win success.

Score at least two projects to compare.
Recommended First Win

You've picked the project. Now protect it.

  1. Charter it in writing before touching the process. Problem statement, scope boundary, baseline metric, and the sponsor's name on one page. Scope creep kills more first wins than bad analysis ever has.
  2. Set the finish line at 90 days or less. If the natural scope runs longer, cut scope — a completed small win beats a promising large one every time.
  3. Baseline in week one. The before-number is the only thing that makes your after-number credible to a skeptical audience.
  4. Pre-plan the victory lap: agree with your sponsor now on where and how the result gets communicated. A win nobody hears about builds no mandate.
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